Nile dam issue heating up again

HERE. Sudan has now taken Ethiopia’s side, leaving Egypt isolated on the issue of a Nile River dam in Ethiopia.

Egyptian policy has long been to oppose a Nile dam built by any country other than itself (in Sadat’s time, there was an explicit policy of using force to prevent this from happening).

Egypt’s case is that the other Nile countries have rain to supply their water needs, and that a treaty guarantees Egypt its current share of Nile water.

The case of the other Nile countries is that Egypt does not use its current share of Nile water efficiently, and that the treaty was forced upon them during the period of British Imperialism.

I’m not especially optimistic about how this issue will play out over the next few decades. Water seems destined to become a point of contention in numerous places around the world, and Egypt (due to its aridity and vast population) is likely to worry that it’s a potential loser on the water issue. My best guess is that Egypt probably will use military force on a water-related issue at some point in the next 20-30 years, regardless of what sorts of governments we see in power in Egypt during that period.

European Graduate School night lecture from August 20, 2013

Looks like I was already using the Turkish index cards by August 20 (I’m still using them, including for the lecture in Sydney two hours from now). The only ones I could buy in Ankara say “Unutmayiniz” (“Don’t forget”) on them.