nice conference

I always love speaking with people in the arts, and especially in this idyllic setting. Stars, fresh air, the sound of bells on sheep.

U.S. election polls for Europeans

Every European I know is horrified by the prospect of a Mitt Romney victory. (Romney is actually fairly moderate and reasonable by his Party’s standards, but I’m horrified by large parts of his entourage.)

More than this, every European I know seems alarmed by various poll numbers they’ve seen. If you’re French or Belgian and see a scary Gallup poll with Romney ahead by 2%, it’s probably hard to avoid taking that very seriously.

The cure for such worries is to follow NATE SILVER’S BLOG in the New York Times, where you will find Obama’s chances looking extremely good at the moment. The maps are on the right-hand side of the page.

Silver called 49 of 50 states correctly in the 2008 election, and quite a number of those predictions were against the conventional wisdom. (His only mistake was calling Indiana, prudently, for McCain, though Obama pulled an upset victory in that state.)

At this point, the election is Obama’s to lose. There could always be some sort of huge gaffe or calamitous event or (though I doubt it) big scandal. Otherwise, I think Romney is in trouble.

The 2016 election will be more interesting, however, and not necessarily in a good sense.