the line on Syria

With reports that Syria’s Vice President has now defected, I made my usual look at Dublin-based Intrade to see how their bettors are interpreting the news. But I was astonished to find a listed 48% chance that Bashar al-Assad will no longer be President as of midnight on December 31.

Only 48%? Seriously, does anyone really think there’s a 52% chance that Bashar will still lead the country on December 31? Really? 52%?

He already lost four top officials in a bomb attack that looked like an inside job in a high-security building. He has faced a wave of defections from people high enough in the food chain that they would have a lot to lose by defecting if they thought Bashar still had a chance. There are also probably some foreign intelligence agencies in there trying to give a final push to the regime.

I think I’d give him maybe a 3% chance of lasting until New Year’s Day, just because there’s probably a 3% chance of pretty much any remotely plausible thing happening in a given 5-month stretch.

I’ve never gotten around to putting any funds in Intrade (it’s a pain for Americans to join, because we’re not allowed to use credit cards for what is classified by our government as an offshore gambling operation). But I’ve noticed quite a number of cases where one could make a killing simply by only going for sure things, such as Bashar’s downfall.