2012 U.S. election simulator

HERE.

I played with this page a lot in 2008 as well. The 2012 version, updated regularly based on the state polling data, currently still looks pretty strong for Obama. I’ve run the sim 8 times so far and Romney hasn’t gotten that close. (Though I can’t help but notice Romney pulling out both Ohio and Michigan in some of the sims I’ve run. In those cases Obama has still won with victories in Florida, Virginia, and/or North Carolina, which seems fairly unlikely to me in any election where he loses Ohio and Michigan. I guess that’s the problem with this particular sim: it seems to treat each state as an isolated contest, whereas Nate Silver’s simulations consider possible nationwide trends so that you don’t end up with unlikely combinations such as the one I just described.)

[ADDENDUM: The more you look at this map, the more it confirms the conventional wisdom that Ohio remains the key. It would be strange if Romney could lose Ohio and still win the election. That’s why I would expect ROB PORTMAN to be his Vice Presidential pick, rather than Rubio.]