public reaction to the Mubarak verdict

It was such a busy day that I’m only now catching up on the news from Egypt, where reaction to the Mubarak verdict by Revolutionaries has been violently negative.

Since I only heard the uttering of the major headline after our morning conference panel (“Mubarak Sentenced to Life in Prison”) the details were unknown to me at first. I didn’t even know, for example, that former Interior Minister Habib El-Adly has also received a life sentence (in my opinion, El-Adly was lucky to escape capital punishment; he would have been the likeliest candidate for it). Ahram is updating the protest blow by blow, HERE.

The main anger seems to have resulted from the acquittal of six other Interior Ministry officials and both of Mubarak’s sons.

If there’s a disagreement between the former regime and protestors, I can only side with the protestors, who were gunned down last year by the former regime in what was obviously premeditated fashion. (And this year too, if you assume as I do that regime remnants had much to do with the Port Said football massacre. Ahly Ultras obviously feel that way, since they were carrying flags today with the number “74” on them, for the number of Ultras among the dead in Port Said on February 1.)

That said, perhaps naively, my own gut reaction to the verdicts is “glass half full.” El-Adly received life in prison, and that’s not going away, if only because at least one scapegoat is needed, and he’s the most deserving candidate for scapegoathood.

Also, I’m less convinced than many that the Mubarak verdict will be overturned. The army decided last year to throw Mubarak under the bus to save themselves, and I don’t see why they’d reverse course on that now. The Mubarak verdict could certainly be overturned on legal technicalities, but that would sink Shafik’s chances if it happened before the election. And as for the notion that a President Shafik would pardon Mubarak, it may sound plausible on the surface, but how can Shafik do that and not provoke a second Revolution?

As for Mubarak’s sons, my understanding is that the corruption case against them was fairly fragile to begin with, involving a handful of villas in the Sinai. Not that other evidence of corruption won’t turn up.

But again, when in doubt, I am inclined to trust the protestors’ instincts about anything that is happening in Egypt these days.

Also, there is this headline: “Mubarak to be stripped of military rank and medals.” Sounds to me like they’re still committed to the throw-him-under-the-bus-to-save-ourselves strategy. Someday we’ll hear interesting stories about the machinations that led SCAF to do this in February 2011. The one thing I’ve read is that Field Marshal Tantawi (who has a reputation for not being especially bright) was an unusually artful schemer in that process.

This story is still developing, but Shafik was going to be in bad shape after the verdict either way, and he’s looking almost as bad now as we would have following an outright acquittal. If the whole verdict were really stage managed, wouldn’t they have chosen to announce it after the election? (Unless, of course, there was the strange assumption that sending Mubarak to prison for life would make Shafik somehow look like a Revolutionary.)

I also take an extra degree of personal satisfaction in El-Adly’s conviction, since his lawyers tried the outrageous tactic of claiming that American University in Cairo security guards are the ones who opened fire on Tahrir protestors. Those guards worked their tails off keeping the Tahrir campus safe during the Revolution. I know some of them personally, and they didn’t deserve to be blamed, even rhetorically, for the murders of a professional torturer and murderer.

[ADDENDUM: And now I read, HERE, that the two Mubarak sons remain in prison pending trial on another corruption charge. I hope this isn’t wishful thinking, but I can’t imagine these guys will escape a stiff prison sentence at some point. Today’s acquittal, as far as I am aware, was on the weaker of the charges against them.]