Egypt Presidential debate

Amazing that this is even happening. Here’s a quote that summarizes the situation between the two front-runners:

“Moussa enjoys popularity in poorer, more densely populated provinces, where many long for stability associated with the old regime. Abol Fotoh enjoys the support of more educated voters.”

In case you don’t follow Egypt much, Moussa was most recently the head of the Arab League. Before that, he was Foreign Minister, where he earned public acclaim at the time by talking very tough about Israel. “I hate Israel, but I love Amr Moussa” was a hit popular song around the time I arrived in Egypt. But I had the sense even at the time that this was political grandstanding, and his Israel policy would probably be just enough tougher than Mubarak’s to please the crowd. He seems like a geopolitical realist, and a very ambitious one.

If you want my personal sense of Moussa… He’s basically a responsible politician with whom other countries can do business, but I also find him to be a complete opportunist with a teflon coating (he supported Mubarak until one day before he stepped down, and somehow he “gets away with it,” which as you know is my favorite ethical concept). I’ve seen him speak here at our university, several years ago, and thought he was a polished orator who sounded basically sensible that night. Moussa wasn’t quite a Mubarak insider in the same sense that Omr Soliman was, but why have a Revolution if Moussa’s your man in the end? Well, at least he wouldn’t do anything utterly insane, most likely.

Abol Fotoh is not Muslim Brotherhood, but ex-Muslim Brotherhood. Though he has next to no support from Egyptian Christians (hard to blame them for not trusting anyone with “Muslim Brotherhood” anywhere on their c.v.’s), he really does seem to be the most popular of the remaining candidates among educated Muslims. He presents himself as a liberal reformist who doesn’t want to enforce specific religious practices on anyone. He’s especially popular among the Muslim Brotherhood youth wing, which gives the impression of being much less hardline than all the old guard of the movement who did jail time under Mubarak.

Mohammed Morsi, the actual Muslim Brotherhood candidate, seems to be trailing by quite a bit, despite the Brotherhood’s dominance of parliamentary seats (where they hold over 60% by themselves). Their more charismatic candidate, al-Shater, was among the 10 candidates disqualified a few weeks ago, who also included the Salafi candidate, Mubarak’s hatchet man Omar Soliman, and Mubarak-era dissident Ayman Nour (who was always in the news a lot for being persecuted in various ways, but never seems to have commanded much popular support as far as I can tell).

Who would I vote for if I had a vote? I don’t like any of them, but it’s not my country after all, as much as I want to see it turn out well. Neither of the two front-runners would be likely to be utter catastrophes for the nation, and in that sense I’m mildly reassured.

Those are the basics of the Presidential election situation. I am less pessimistic about the country now than was in, say, February, just after the Port Said football massacre. For me that was the probably the low point of the past 16 months. Despite a few rough spots, it looks as though Egypt is probably going to hold a bona fide Presidential election two weeks from now.

Beyond that, I can’t claim to be following the race in intricate detail, so you can probably find a much more sophisticated analysis elsewhere. These are just the ABC’s of what is happening.