a very, very close race in Iowa

Looks like Romney won by *8 votes* in Iowa over Santorum, with Ron Paul finishing 3rd.

New Hampshire likes to reverse what Iowa does, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see Ron Paul win there.

I’d say that Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann are finished, and Newt Gingrich is most probably finished.

The county-by-county map was interesting if unsurprising. Romney won the counties that have cities in them (or what passes for “cities” in my home state– Des Moines is the largest of all, and is only about 225,000 people last time I looked). Santorum swept the rural center of the state. Ron Paul tended to win counties bordering other states, such as in the northeast, east, and south.

Since Iowa is relatively unpopulous but gets so much candidate attention, personalities matter a lot. If you live in Iowa, you have a good chance of running into one of the candidates while out for breakfast at some point. (My grandfather went out for coffee one morning in Cedar Rapids, and there was Lamar Alexander, during his 1996 run. As a kid in 1980, I met Howard Baker.)

Anyway, someone I know in Iowa whose sense of human personalities I trust, and who is ultra-liberal to the point of being legitimately Left, nonetheless had a very positive impression of Santorum during this campaign. She said that Romney came off in Iowa as patriarchal and secretly very dark, whereas Santorum came off as likable. Do with that observation what you will; I thought it was interesting.

At least now the pheasants of Iowa are safe from Santorum’s Tough Guy Hunter routine.