Perry surges in Iowa

If Bachmann can’t win the Iowa caucuses, her campaign is doomed, because she won’t win New Hampshire, and would then be in a deep hole. Rick Perry has now charged to the front in Iowa. Someone I know well who lived in Texas for most of Perry’s time as governor calls him “a moody frat boy,” which seems on target based on what I’ve seen.

Iowa on the whole is a sane state, but the Iowa Republican Party often distills much of what is worst about that Party.

“Beyond the GOP presidential race, the poll showed some interesting facets of the GOP base in Iowa. PPP asked two simple questions: ‘Do you believe in global warming or not?’ and ‘Do you believe in evolution or not?’ Global warming was only believed by 21 percent of respondents, against 66 percent, who do not. Evolution was believed by 35 percent of those polled, versus 48 percent. Only a near majority, 48 percent, think that President Obama was born in the US.”

I’d been pretty sure that they’d have to nominate Romney, but I’m shifting in the direction of thinking that Rick Perry will be the nominee. He’s a bit more fiery than Romney, and fiery is where the Republicans feel like being right now.

But I also think running another Texas Governor would be a good way for the Republicans to get people fired up against them, whereas Romney, being the sort of person where I hate listening to his robotic artificialness but wouldn’t immediately want to shoot myself if he won, might be a less polarizing choice for them. I also happen to think Romney is a lot smarter than Rick Perry, but of course intelligence is rarely a key factor in these things.