Iowa straw poll for Republican candidates

A typically interesting bit of number-crunching by Nate Silver. HERE.

My best guess is still that Bachmann will win Iowa but then get crushed by Romney in New Hampshire. Bachmann just isn’t the New England type, to say the least.

[ADDENDUM: Tim Pawlenty has just dropped out of the race. Smart move. Bachmann had stolen his Minnesota local appeal to Iowans, and he’s a bland candidate in a year when many people think the Republicans are looking for someone more fiery. Of course, Romney isn’t especially fiery either, but I still think he’s their best candidate.]