a general reflection on Egypt

A number of disappointing and even ugly things have happened here since February 11, and for that reason there have been a few pretty depressing moments when my general optimism has been tested.

However, the primary cause for optimism is that, slow and erratic though its course may be, the Army does eventually seem to respond to demands, as long as the protestors keep showing that they can bring thousands of people back onto the streets whenever they see fit.

In bad moments, it’s always easy to start thinking that some sinister master plan exists within the Army leadership. But whenever something happens like the arrest of the Mubaraks, a different picture takes shape once again: that of the Army as a basically conservative group of people rather than a scheming and plotting one, people who fail to take actions quickly more out of instinctive foot-dragging and caution (and indeed a bit of selfishness) than due to some vast manipulative plan. This is the more optimistic picture, and I hope it’s the correct one.