some radiation reaches California

1316: An unnamed diplomat says Japan’s radioactive fallout has reached southern California but first readings are “a billion times beneath levels” that would be considered a threat to health, AP reports.

historical irony

1348: Finland says it will move the operations of its embassy in Tokyo to Hiroshima as “a precaution” amid the ongoing crisis at the nuclear power plant in Fukushima, Kyodo news agency reports.

I wonder why they chose Hiroshima, of all places. But perhaps there are practical reasons. Also, Hiroshima was one of my favorite places in all of Japan, quite apart from any historical considerations. There’s a real liveliness to the place, and quite a bit of natural beauty nearby.

first detailed “yes” case I’ve seen

I’ve said that most Egyptians in my circles are rallying for a “no” vote on the new Constitution tomorrow. Here’s the first detailed “yes” case I’ve seen, from a very bright Egyptian scientist I know. I include it here for fairness’ sake:

“If we say yes we get:
– fixed periods for elections, known order of parliament then president, fixed mechanisms for writing constitution, democratic elections to produce a constitution, clear exit scenario for military rule

If we say no, we get:
– no fixed periods for elections, both options for order of president/parliament, several options for transitional rule, no fixed mechanisms for writing constitution, less democratic procedure to produce a consitution, very high possibility of deadlock on new constitution (both crafting it and voting on it) and deadlock on order of elections and deadlock on transitional period, ..etc., unknown exit scenario for military rule

To me it’s a clear yes.
But in any case, I’m very happy that we’re having this dicussion, and that it’s for real! I’m optimistic about the future.”

One issue with the “yes” case here is that the order of parliamentary elections and then Presidential elections is the opposite order of what most of my friends seem to want.

The point seems to be this: a Presidential election will be a matter of choosing the right strong, known personality to start bringing Egypt back into working order. But a parliamentary election is more about political parties, and more time is needed to organize them: the fear being that the two most organized parties at the moment are Mubarak’s NDP (which won’t exist, but the networks of people can always resurface under a new name) and the Muslim Brotherhood, along with the Wafd and Ayman Nour’s party and a handful of others. People apparently want time to organize more of them.

Airbus indicted, Air France investigated

This is over the Rio de Janeiro-Paris crash a couple of years ago.

I don’t know all the legalities here, but find it hard to believe the two companies can be held responsible when the wreckage hasn’t even been found yet. We have little idea what happened.

Fukushima Daiichi now rates a 5

The International Atomic Energy Agency classifies nuclear accidents on a 7-point scale.

Chernobyl was a 7.

Fukushima Daiichi has now been rated a 5. I’m not surprised that it’s not a 7 yet, I’m just surprised that Three Mile Island was also a 5. By all accounts I’ve read, Fukushima Daiichi is well past Three Mile Island stage.

one passage from the Moran interview

It’s a nice interview with Dermot Moran. But I think this passage overstates the case somewhat:

“There was a very interesting article in the New York Times quite recently by a critical commentator complaining about the way in which the Egyptian and the Tunisia revolutions were presented in the US media as if they were victories for Facebook. The fact of the matter was that the Internet was down, as was the mobile phone system in these countries, for five or six days. So people were not mobilizing via Facebook or the Internet. There was external people doing that, raising consciousness, but within Egypt and Tunisia it was not done that way; they did it the traditional way by meeting each other than passing on traditional messages – like having a sense of going to the square at the same time or whatever.”

Facebook did in fact play a big role in Egypt, just as Twitter did. (And I say this as someone who has multiple gripes with Facebook.) True, they were all shut down for the first X number of days. But the “We Are All Khaled Said” Facebook group was of major importance in laying the groundwork for what happened here.

Also, there’s not a simple distinction between inside/outside people. For example, much of my own information about the revolution as it was in progress came from Facebook, from Egyptians I know who happened not to be in Egypt and thus had web access, but who were calling friends and family in Egypt and summarizing those reports on the web. All very important.

That said, Moran is certainly right that the Egyptians quickly figured out how to capitalize on more traditional means of communication when Mubarak pulled the plug on the internet. I’m a firm believer in the theory that this strategy backfired: once the internet was turned off, people had no other source of news than to go out on the street, and the protests swelled even further.

envying my Egyptian friends

I wish I could be Egyptian tomorrow. People are having such fun with this referendum vote, and the “no” votes are now piling up heavily, at least in the circles in which I travel.

Apparently, the “yes” votes are much heavier in Islamist circles, but it still seems as though “no” will win resoundingly.

France to participate

“(CNN) — Military strikes against Libya will take place “swiftly” and France will definitely participate, government spokesman Francois Baroin said in an interview Friday with RTL radio.”

As long as there’s an agreement worked out with the provisional opposition government in Benghazi, I don’t have a problem with this, given that the alternative looks like a massacre.

But ultimately, this means being fully committed to the removal of Qaddafi, and everyone should be clear about this before starting.

probe reaches Mercury

Fascinating. HERE.

Bahrain’s behavior out of control

HERE.

According to an opposition leader, they are harassing hospitals with deliberate electricity cuts, and in one case pulled a surgeon out of surgery, presumably leaving the patient to die on the operating table. Also reports of systematic attacks on villages.

I think it’s no accident that this much harsher repression began as soon as the foreign Gulf forces arrived (Saudi and Emirati).

The situation is a complete disgrace, and I’m afraid a bit of the blood is on U.S. hands here. We have enough weight with all of the countries involved that we could have made it clear that this would be unacceptable.