first detailed “yes” case I’ve seen

March 18, 2011

I’ve said that most Egyptians in my circles are rallying for a “no” vote on the new Constitution tomorrow. Here’s the first detailed “yes” case I’ve seen, from a very bright Egyptian scientist I know. I include it here for fairness’ sake:

“If we say yes we get:
– fixed periods for elections, known order of parliament then president, fixed mechanisms for writing constitution, democratic elections to produce a constitution, clear exit scenario for military rule

If we say no, we get:
– no fixed periods for elections, both options for order of president/parliament, several options for transitional rule, no fixed mechanisms for writing constitution, less democratic procedure to produce a consitution, very high possibility of deadlock on new constitution (both crafting it and voting on it) and deadlock on order of elections and deadlock on transitional period, ..etc., unknown exit scenario for military rule

To me it’s a clear yes.
But in any case, I’m very happy that we’re having this dicussion, and that it’s for real! I’m optimistic about the future.”

One issue with the “yes” case here is that the order of parliamentary elections and then Presidential elections is the opposite order of what most of my friends seem to want.

The point seems to be this: a Presidential election will be a matter of choosing the right strong, known personality to start bringing Egypt back into working order. But a parliamentary election is more about political parties, and more time is needed to organize them: the fear being that the two most organized parties at the moment are Mubarak’s NDP (which won’t exist, but the networks of people can always resurface under a new name) and the Muslim Brotherhood, along with the Wafd and Ayman Nour’s party and a handful of others. People apparently want time to organize more of them.

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