Stratfor’s counterintuitive predictions

I just ran across this link to a book by George Friedman of Stratfor. I’ve glanced at their website in the past and their viewpoint seems to be one of geopolitical “realism” that emphasizes geographical invariants, demographical facts, and Realpolitik over the individual government policies and personalities of the moment. I’ve also seen a few misfired predictions there, such as their prediction a few years ago of a supposedly imminent and sweeping peace deal between the Israelis, Syrians, and Palestinians.

Nonetheless, I can never resist reading futurology. I suppose the conventional view is that China is the rising power and the U.S. entering its decadence. Friedman takes a contrarian view here that’s interesting to read. Here are some summaries taken from the Amazon page:

“Friedman maps what he sees as the likeliest developments of the future, some intuitive, some surprising: more (but less catastrophic) wars; Russia’s re-emergence as an aggressive hegemonic power; China’s diminished influence in international affairs due to traditional social and economic imbalances; and the dawn of an American ‘Golden Age’ in the second half of the century.”

“The author asserts that the United States power is so extraordinarily overwhelming that it will dominate the coming century, brushing aside Islamic terrorist threats now, overcoming a resurgent Russia in the 2010s and 20s and eventually gaining influence over space-based missile systems that Friedman names battle stars. Friedman is the founder of Stratfor, an independent geopolitical forecasting company, and his authoritative-sounding predictions are based on such factors as natural resources and population cycles. While these concrete measures lend his short-term forecasts credence, the later years of Friedmans 100-year cycle will provoke some serious eyebrow raising. The armed border clashes between Mexico and the United States in the 2080s seem relatively plausible, but the space war pitting Japan and Turkey against the United States and allies, prognosticated to begin precisely on Thanksgiving Day 2050, reads as fantastic (and terrifying) science fiction.”

A space war in 2050 with Japan and Turkey vs. the U.S. and its allies is one of the weirdest predictions I’ve ever seen. But if I stay healthy enough, I might still be around to see it for myself.

I’m watching his video spiel now, to the extent that my jumpy internet connection allows. He’s saying roughly this:

*at the beginning of the 20th century, it was all about Germany, and if you grasped that fact, you could get some idea of how the 20th century might unfold [I’ve long had a theory that if not for Hitler, Germany would have been the dominant global superpower right now, but that’s a speculation for some other time- g.h.]

*at the beginning of the 21st century, it’s all about the United States, and Friedman bases his projections and scenarios on that

*”the Europeans delight in predicting the end of American power,” but Friedman responds: the U.S. GDP is equal to the next 3 or 4 countries combined, and the US Navy controls the oceans of the world; the U.S. is the only power bordering both the Atlantic and the Pacific, giving an immense economic and military advantage; beginning in 1980, Pacific trade eclipsed Atlantic trade for the first time, and thus Europe is somewhat sidelined

*with the demographic crisis looming in the industrialized countries, immigration will be a key; Europe traditionally has trouble handling immigrants, and Japan is terrible at this; the U.S, Canada, New Zealand, Australia are very skilled at the integration of immigrants into society, and this is another advantage

*technological development is driven by military investment; the military battleground of the future is space; solar power is the energy future, and solar collectors will eventually be put into space where there is no night or clouds; space-based solar power can be beamed back to earth via microwave, and NASA is already in the lead on this

*China’s economy is too dependent on exports; China will fragment again; they are too geographically isolated to become a great power; keeping China together has historically always been a challenge, and will continue to be

*expansion of NATO into Eastern Europe is viewed by Putin as an existential threat, and this will lead to a confrontation, not a war: Russia will lose this confrontation, and Russia will collapse again

I’ll be curious to hear what he makes of climate change. I’m still a bit rattled by James Lovelock’s lecture in Dublin two years ago, I must admit.

[ADDENDUM: Here’s another Friedman prediction that didn’t turn out especially well… In 1991, he published a book called The Coming War with Japan. I well remember the late 1980’s “Japan is taking over the world” atmosphere, and things took a different turn right about the time that book came out. The book description is a bit embarrassing now, actually:

“This disturbing book offers an original, penetrating analysis of the future of U.S.-Japanese relations. The authors argue that with the collapse of the Cold War and with the Soviet Union in disarray, the U.S. will no longer endure Japan’s economic encroachments. Japan, meanwhile, in order to ensure the influx of raw materials and to secure an export market it can dominate politically, will solidify its trading bloc in Southwest Asia and the Indian Ocean, while challenging U.S. hegemony in the Pacific Basin. As the U.S. converts its global military supremacy into economic leverage, America and a rearmed Japan will be set on a collision course; the rivalry between them could well spill over into a ‘hot war,’ the authors maintain.”]