al-Qaeda possibly being outflanked

Speaking of which, here’s a New York Times article today about the increased irrelevance of al-Qaeda in the current climate:

“For nearly two decades, the leaders of Al Qaeda have denounced the Arab world’s dictators as heretics and puppets of the West and called for their downfall. Now, people in country after country have risen to topple their leaders — and Al Qaeda has played absolutely no role…

‘So far — and I emphasize so far — the score card looks pretty terrible for Al Qaeda,’ said Paul R. Pillar, who studied terrorism and the Middle East for nearly three decades at the C.I.A. and is now at Georgetown University…

‘Knocking off Mubarak has been Zawahri’s goal for more than 20 years, and he was unable to achieve it,’ said Brian Fishman, a terrorism expert at the New America Foundation. ‘Now a nonviolent, nonreligious, pro-democracy movement got rid of him in a matter of weeks. It’s a major problem for Al Qaeda.'”

History is filled with tricks. But the current round of uprisings certainly lends weight to the theory that always claimed that religious extremism was produced by dictatorships rather than held in check by them. In particular, Mubarak’s claim to be the only force able to prevent Egypt from sliding into chaos now looks worse than laughable: it looks like a cynical lie. Whatever chaos existed in Egypt in January/February had one and only one source: Mubarak’s regime itself.