Intrade prices on dictators

INTRADE.COM is one of the better established websites where you can do futures trading on events. I’ve never done any trades there (or elsewhere), but it’s often very useful for measuring the conventional wisdom. It’s not always right, of course, but quite often it is.

Here’s how it works. If you bet on something and it happens, you receive $100 per share. But if you bet on something and it doesn’t happen, you receive $0 per share, losing your whole investment. So obviously, the closer the price of an event gets to $100, the more likely buyers think it is to happen.

For example, right now the stock price for a USA or Israeli airstrike on Iran before December 31 is only $11, which is down significantly from where it was a few years ago. And this is useful though not infallible information: clearly, the public no longer anticipates such an airstrike.

In any case, here are the current prices on various autocrats being pushed out of power before December 31 of this year. Keep in mind that removal from power by any means qualifies, including natural death, assassination, simply quitting for personal reasons, etc.

Libya $88
Yemen $72
Bahrain (Prime Minister) $63
Algeria $22
Iran (Ahmadinejad) $18
Iran (Khameini) $15

*Even at $88, I think Libya is underpriced. Can you really see Qaddafi still in power on December 31?
*Yemen is probably about right at $72.
*For Iran, I wish those prices were higher but that’s probably what I’d say too: $15-$18.

In any case, it’s an interesting site to look at from time to time to get measurements of what other people are willing to bet on.

I’ve been following the site loosely for about 6 years. The one where I saw investors get hammered worst was on Bush’s summer 2005 Supreme Court nomination of John Roberts. There were last-minute rumors it would be that woman in New Orleans whose name escapes me at the moment. Her stock price went up to $88 or so, and then those investors got $0 back when Bush pulled Roberts out of a hat.

For what it’s worth, the stock price on the Higgs Boson being observed by December 31 is only $10, and it only goes up to $15 for a deadline of December 31, 2013.