where to go next in Libya

Suddenly things seem a bit STALEMATED, with the East clearly out of Qaddafi’s control but Tripoli clearly still under it. Reports from the capital indicate the streets are filled with police, loyalist soldiers, and mercenaries, with no protestors at all. The road between Tripoli and the Tunisian border seems to be controlled by loyalists as well.

This is where the renewed question of Western participation arises. The UK was making noises about this last night. Obama’s statement that the crackdown is “outrageous and unacceptable” could be dismissed, but he also added that Qaddafi “must be held accountable,” which sounds a bit more like he may be laying the groundwork for something.

But for what? I’m going on the assumption that it’s a very bad idea for Western militaries actually to land in Libya and participate in fighting, and no one has suggested that. But things have gone so far in Libya that we can’t be against “the violence,” we have to be against Qaddafi.

So, what are the things we can do to undermine him? A no-fly zone, OK, but this means we have to be prepared to shoot down actual Libyan aircraft. Supplies to the rebels? A definite yes if it’s food and medicine, and I have no objection to arming them against Qaddafi, but there’s a possible backfire to that, especially if a post-Qaddafi Libya descends into tribal civil war (though I’m less convinced of the probability of that than some are).

David R. wrote and suggested that we pay off the mercenaries to leave. It’s a creative thought, but I worry about giving money to anyone who might later have to go to The Hague, and some of these mercenaries might if they are captured. Perhaps we could threaten the mercenaries, but there’s still the question of whether they are logistically able to depart. In fact my suspicion is that the mercenaries are all walking dead men, since when Qaddafi falls (the world won’t let him stay indefinitely) there is going to be all kinds of vigilantism against the mercenaries in ways that they have earned with their own behavior. (Funny how the Qaddafis blamed foreigners for the rebellion, when only one side of this conflict is introducing foreigners into it.)

Is it already forbidden under international law to use foreign mercenaries for domestic operations? If not, perhaps it ought to be.