what a month

If you’d asked me at midnight on January 1, sitting in Cyprus, what the chances were of Egypt looking like this on January 31, I’d have said 1 in 1,000.

If you’d asked me again a few hours later after the Alexandria church bombing hit the news, I might have changed it to 1 in 100, but the 1 estimated chance would have been some sort of truly horrific scenario.

Even when I left Cairo on January 12, Tunisia hadn’t happened yet, and this just wasn’t within the range of easily conceivable possibility.

What I and probably most people expected was that these issues would be hashed out somehow at the time of the natural passing of the incumbent, perhaps even violently, but not while the incumbent chose to remain. And even if somehow the latter, then through forces other than the populace as a whole. There have been any number of surprises here.